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Pass the Puck 12/15 late edition!

December 15, 2018

So no catastrophe last night as I split my bets on Bovada. The Pens beating the B’s 5-3 for my win and in bizarro world the Blues not only covered but WON 4-3 in OT. Definitely didn’t see that one coming.

Meanwhile, in my personal ‘formulas’, these are formulas I have devised through stats I compile. In one of my metrics teams with this rating or higher were 2-11 going into the night and the one team with the rating went 0-1, In the other a team playing an opponent with a certain differential or above was 7-1, Colorado blew that one.

So as of tonight here are the results

Formula 1 2-12 (tonight there are 4 teams that qualify and they are 2-2 so it’s 4-14)

Formula 2 teams were 0-5 into tonight, one team tonight qualified and they lost so this one is 0-6

Formula 3 teams were 7-1 into tonight and there are 3 teams that qualified here, they went 2-1 so they’re 9-2 on the year.

As I get more into this and more of a sample size and once I put up the subscription wall I will put the formulas out there for you to judge for yourself.

In DFS I went with a few different stacks. Las Vegas 1, Winnipeg 1 and 2, Caps 1 and Colorado 1 for as many matches as I could get under the cap.

I won 1400 but was in 1600 so ended up down 200 for the night.

I’ve got the methods down, all but the most crucial.

Tonight is a great example actually. Tonight you can only enter 43 teams at 40$ per team. Do you stack 1 line 43 ways? 2 lines 21/22 ways? What? And most importantly who?

Tonight I went with an awkward compilation. I went 22 deep with Toronto’s top line and I had a feeling about the Canadians based on the data. Ottawa on the back end of not only a back to back but a ROAD back to back. McKenna in goal and defensive metrics that are beyond atrocious.

It turned out to almost be a good to great pick as the Habs scored 4 times in the 3rd. The problem is I didn’t have the right guys in my 6 man stack. I’ve come to realize in many of the larger entry fee games the better players don’t go with 1 line from here and 1 line from there, they will stack one team, 6 skaters or 5 and the goalie. Usually, it’s 5 top 2 line guys, the 5 guys on the top PP, or the top line, best skater on line 2 and top PP d-man.

I went with the top PP unit, Domi, Tatar, Gallagher Petry, and Weber. They had a very good night grabbing 2 G 2 A netting a total of 20.5 pts. Put the better way, they gave me almost 3.5 pts per player. That’s ok, but that wins no pots. Winning totals on a high scoring night in the NHL reach the 70’s, most nights high 50’s to mid-’60s. That means you need to AVERAGE 6-8 pts per man, across the board. Now that’s usually a compilation of a line that has a player getting a hat trick (which is a minimum of 12 since you get a 1.5pt hat trick “bonus) with his linemates netting one or more assists.

Think MacKinnon, Bergeron, Tavares, Mathews, McDavid, Scheifele, Tyler Johnson and Stamkos lines. Patrick Laine’s line. Dynamic lines with multiple scorers. A goal can be worth 7.5 when the assists come from 2 linemates who you paired up with the goal scorer.

So I’m watching the nights final games play out, and it’d be nice to see Vancouver do a little something and pick me up tonight!

Tomorrow is a small slate, just 3 games. DFS wise I only dabble on these right now but betting wise here are some “tips”.

Vegas qualifies as a ‘formula 3’ team (which are 9-2) vs NY. Not only that but NY qualifies as a Formula 1 team (who are 2-12) so that’s a double whammy. I’m betting that and taking Vegas -1.5.

Arizona is the only other team right now that hits any of my formulas (Formula 1, again they’re 2-12 so far) so that’s a game I may look into as well.

Have a great night!

 

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