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DFS = It’s in the details

December 14, 2018

So last night, late, I’m sitting there watching the last game unfold. I had one entry in the 400$ per entry pool and it paid out 11 places. I’m out of 11th place by 0.6 pts and the 800 it pays puts me up for the night. Not a lot, but up.

Blocked shots = .5 pts. I’ve got 1 player left playing, Brett Burns….. In the ultimate Murphy’s Law case he blocks a shot with 30 seconds remaining, the Stars have 6 attackers and an empty net. Anything, a shot, another block, God forbid an actual goal, and it’s a great night.

Awesomeo, Dollar, Testor, and the rest are comfortably parked in the money as usual.

Sure enough, the clock hits zero and I end up .1 out of a profitable night.

Why am I whining? Well, I am trying not to while I make a point. If you want to play DFS and you are doing so with a mindset that is anything beyond casual you have to understand that every single roster spot is insanely crucial.

.1 pts last night cost me 800 bucks and that was NOTHING compared to what I’ve seen over the past 2 years. I’ve seen that same margin be the difference between 2500 and 25000. I’ve seen it be the difference between winning 10k or nothing.

Fact is roster assembly, and this is likely pretty obvious to even the most rookie of players, is where the games won and lost.

I am embarrassed to admit it but there were times last year when I first started out that I was unaware of the fact that in hockey you can have guys ‘scratched’ literally a few minutes before the puck drops.

Why is that important? Well, the #1 reason is that if you aren’t paying attention you get a doughnut in that spot on your roster for the night. And yes, there were nights, more than I care to admit when I rostered a player that was a late scratch, more often than not it was goalies! Putting my lineups in early and kicking back before every goalie was ‘confirmed’ as the starter.

Fast forward to mid-evening when I am perusing my scores and I look at a team and see my goalie with 0 pts, and no saves, midway through the 2nd period…..

There were many nights, again more than I’d like to admit to, when I had a zero goalie cost me a significant amount of money. Nights when I would have broken even, or profited anywhere from 100 to 3-4K, where I ended up with nothing.

DF ex1

Let me show you something. This is from tonight, actually it’s a tournament going on right now.

First off notice another of the worlds best I_Slewfoot_U who’s all over the top 10 midway through the evening in the 150 entry GPP pool. But check out Awesemo in the 5th spot tied with a few guys. Actually, he has two teams tied there.

He and I picked the ‘same’ lineup, Carolina’s top line paired with the Knights top line. We both took Carlson as one of our D’s and he took Faulk and I took Nurse while he took DeSmith and I took Fleury (who gave up a 4th goal not long after this screenshot).

3pts separate us right here. His two 5th place teams are at the moment worth 1600 bucks while my team is winning 150.

Every single spot on the roster is of crucial importance. To create a top tiered 1st and 2nd line combo often times you’re left ‘scraping’ the bottom of the barrel for 2 D worth 25-2700 each. It’s IMPERATIVE you get guys that do NOT take a donut!

You cannot afford zeroes in any spot on your roster.

That data I told you about in an earlier post? Ya, I know exactly what % a 3rd line defender that does not play on the PP scores how many pts. I know his chances of scoring 3.5+ (a goal is 3.5 pts, 3 for the goal and .5 for the shot). I know his chances of scoring 1 or less. I know his chances of scoring 5 or more, 7 or more, 10 or more and so on. I know those % for every position on the ice, every line, every spot.

So when I’m left with those last picks and trying to find that 2600$ defenseman to fill out the roster spot I don’t grab the guy who averages the most pts, I grab the guy who is “potentially” positioned to score more than the rest of the 2600$ defenders that night. It’s a combination of Fantasy Cruncher and the data I have compiled.

Until next time!

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