Polls say what?
Here’s a poll I want someone better at numbers to tell me where the flaws are here.
By my counts:
50-38% of 874 likely voters means 437-332 with 105 undecided or Johnson/Stein voters
36% Dems = 314
31% Ind. = 270
27% Rep = 236
FWIW that leaves 5% of the polled folks not affiliated with anything….
Let’s assume both Dem and Rep ALL voted party lines (not a bad assumption but will have to suffice)
That would mean the following
For Hillary to be at 50% 123 of the 279 Ind voted Dem (46%)
Trump would need 96 of 270 Ind voters (41%).
Still leaves 13% (113 votes) either undecided or Johnson Stein.
So am I wrong in assuming what this says is a record Republican turnout and a national split of 46-41% of undecideds means Trump wins in Reagan fashion?