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Polls say what?

October 23, 2016

Here’s a poll I want someone better at numbers to tell me where the flaws are here.

By my counts:

50-38% of 874 likely voters means 437-332 with 105 undecided or Johnson/Stein voters

Polling body:

36% Dems = 314

31% Ind. = 270

27% Rep = 236

FWIW that leaves 5% of the polled folks not affiliated with anything….

Let’s assume both Dem and Rep ALL voted party lines (not a bad assumption but will have to suffice)

That would mean the following

For Hillary to be at 50% 123 of the 279 Ind voted Dem (46%)

Trump would need 96 of 270 Ind voters (41%).

Still leaves 13% (113 votes) either undecided or Johnson Stein.

So am I wrong in assuming what this says is a record Republican turnout and a national split of 46-41% of undecideds means Trump wins in Reagan fashion?

 

7 Comments leave one →
  1. October 24, 2016 12:59 am

    yes, you’re wrong.

  2. October 24, 2016 5:22 am

    IMHO 60% of 100% of people are honest 50% of the time. 🆗that is my joke for this morning.

  3. October 24, 2016 7:03 am

    Doubtful that there will be a record turn-out of Republicans. Trump has alienated lots of them.

  4. October 24, 2016 11:28 am

    any poll that small is statistically insignificant. Not even close Curt- leave math to smart people

  5. October 24, 2016 11:33 am

    Also saying the republicans will vote on party lines is a joke. RIP GOP

  6. October 24, 2016 2:34 pm

    Let’s see…….Curt Shilling or Nate Silver when it comes to math analysis. Really a tough decision there…..

  7. February 14, 2017 7:36 am

    Will you be challenging DINO Senator Warren?

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