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Pass the Puck 12/19 late edition!

December 18, 2018

Hectic day running around but I wanted to drop a quick note and some observations.

There really is no question Barry Trotz is a HoF coach is there?

Look no further than last night if you wondered.

What the Isles did to what many consider the best line in hockey was stunning. It was defensive perfection for 3 periods.

Shutting down even one of those guys is a chore, but Mackinnon, Rantanen, AND Landeskog? Incredibly impressive.

Also impressive to see the Lehner/Greiss combo continue to surprise.

Not sure WHAT THE HELL happened in Dallas tonight but it’s midway through the 3rd, the Stars are up 2-0 on the Flames and Calgary just took their 18th shot of the night!

In DFS one of my mini stacks was the Monahan line……

I think I need to lay off the Preds for a bit. The Suban injury I thought they were muscling through but with both Arvidsson and Forsberg out and Rinne not being perfect they seem to have slipped just a tad. 6-4 in their last 10 up against a 1-8-1 in their last 10 26 pt Blackhawks team and they are down 2-1 midway through the 3rd.

Just 2 games tomorrow but what should be a real good one in DC as the Pens visit the defending Stanley Cup Champs….

Pass the Puck 12/17

December 17, 2018

Any of you DFS players it appears Letang IS playing tonight. Wanted to get that out of the way since we’re about an hour from puck drop.

So if you’ve been following along and have read about the ‘formulas’, there’s a few teams qualifying tonight.

Teams qualifying for F3 are 8-3 coming into tonight, the Pens qualify as do the Avalanche. Teams qualifying for F1 are the Ducks and Islanders, their qualifying has nothing to do with their opponents btw, just so happens to have worked out that way. Anyway, F1 teams are 4-18 coming into tonight.

So as you might guess I put my money on the Pens and the Avalanche moneylines tonight.

Just 5 games on the DK slate tonight. Nothing jumping out at ya but Colorado but their top line is so expensive you have to get the right matches with the other 2-3 lines around the schedule.

Pass the Puck 12/16 early edition

December 16, 2018

In the last 2 compilations I mentioned “formulas’ I had devised. I’ve labeled them Formulas’ 1, 2 and 3. I wanted to go ahead and give you a heads up on what teams fall under the criteria and the stats.

Formulas 1 and 2 are based on offensive statistics and data compiled to get me two different numbers. Being qualified for either is not good.

As of today teams that qualified for Formula 1 were 4-18 with both Arizona and the Rangers qualifying as Formula 1 teams today.

There were no Formula 2 teams. Formula 2 teams are 0-5 coming into today.

Formula 3 is a + formula, meaning teams that qualify are good. They were 8-2 coming into today and Vegas is the only team that qualified for Formula 3 today.

Actually, I was mistaken. Vancouver is a Formula 1 team tonight vs Edmonton.

I’ll be back later but wanted to throw that out there.

Pass the Puck 12/15 late edition!

December 15, 2018

So no catastrophe last night as I split my bets on Bovada. The Pens beating the B’s 5-3 for my win and in bizarro world the Blues not only covered but WON 4-3 in OT. Definitely didn’t see that one coming.

Meanwhile, in my personal ‘formulas’, these are formulas I have devised through stats I compile. In one of my metrics teams with this rating or higher were 2-11 going into the night and the one team with the rating went 0-1, In the other a team playing an opponent with a certain differential or above was 7-1, Colorado blew that one.

So as of tonight here are the results

Formula 1 2-12 (tonight there are 4 teams that qualify and they are 2-2 so it’s 4-14)

Formula 2 teams were 0-5 into tonight, one team tonight qualified and they lost so this one is 0-6

Formula 3 teams were 7-1 into tonight and there are 3 teams that qualified here, they went 2-1 so they’re 9-2 on the year.

As I get more into this and more of a sample size and once I put up the subscription wall I will put the formulas out there for you to judge for yourself.

In DFS I went with a few different stacks. Las Vegas 1, Winnipeg 1 and 2, Caps 1 and Colorado 1 for as many matches as I could get under the cap.

I won 1400 but was in 1600 so ended up down 200 for the night.

I’ve got the methods down, all but the most crucial.

Tonight is a great example actually. Tonight you can only enter 43 teams at 40$ per team. Do you stack 1 line 43 ways? 2 lines 21/22 ways? What? And most importantly who?

Tonight I went with an awkward compilation. I went 22 deep with Toronto’s top line and I had a feeling about the Canadians based on the data. Ottawa on the back end of not only a back to back but a ROAD back to back. McKenna in goal and defensive metrics that are beyond atrocious.

It turned out to almost be a good to great pick as the Habs scored 4 times in the 3rd. The problem is I didn’t have the right guys in my 6 man stack. I’ve come to realize in many of the larger entry fee games the better players don’t go with 1 line from here and 1 line from there, they will stack one team, 6 skaters or 5 and the goalie. Usually, it’s 5 top 2 line guys, the 5 guys on the top PP, or the top line, best skater on line 2 and top PP d-man.

I went with the top PP unit, Domi, Tatar, Gallagher Petry, and Weber. They had a very good night grabbing 2 G 2 A netting a total of 20.5 pts. Put the better way, they gave me almost 3.5 pts per player. That’s ok, but that wins no pots. Winning totals on a high scoring night in the NHL reach the 70’s, most nights high 50’s to mid-’60s. That means you need to AVERAGE 6-8 pts per man, across the board. Now that’s usually a compilation of a line that has a player getting a hat trick (which is a minimum of 12 since you get a 1.5pt hat trick “bonus) with his linemates netting one or more assists.

Think MacKinnon, Bergeron, Tavares, Mathews, McDavid, Scheifele, Tyler Johnson and Stamkos lines. Patrick Laine’s line. Dynamic lines with multiple scorers. A goal can be worth 7.5 when the assists come from 2 linemates who you paired up with the goal scorer.

So I’m watching the nights final games play out, and it’d be nice to see Vancouver do a little something and pick me up tonight!

Tomorrow is a small slate, just 3 games. DFS wise I only dabble on these right now but betting wise here are some “tips”.

Vegas qualifies as a ‘formula 3’ team (which are 9-2) vs NY. Not only that but NY qualifies as a Formula 1 team (who are 2-12) so that’s a double whammy. I’m betting that and taking Vegas -1.5.

Arizona is the only other team right now that hits any of my formulas (Formula 1, again they’re 2-12 so far) so that’s a game I may look into as well.

Have a great night!

 

DFS = It’s in the details

December 14, 2018

So last night, late, I’m sitting there watching the last game unfold. I had one entry in the 400$ per entry pool and it paid out 11 places. I’m out of 11th place by 0.6 pts and the 800 it pays puts me up for the night. Not a lot, but up.

Blocked shots = .5 pts. I’ve got 1 player left playing, Brett Burns….. In the ultimate Murphy’s Law case he blocks a shot with 30 seconds remaining, the Stars have 6 attackers and an empty net. Anything, a shot, another block, God forbid an actual goal, and it’s a great night.

Awesomeo, Dollar, Testor, and the rest are comfortably parked in the money as usual.

Sure enough, the clock hits zero and I end up .1 out of a profitable night.

Why am I whining? Well, I am trying not to while I make a point. If you want to play DFS and you are doing so with a mindset that is anything beyond casual you have to understand that every single roster spot is insanely crucial.

.1 pts last night cost me 800 bucks and that was NOTHING compared to what I’ve seen over the past 2 years. I’ve seen that same margin be the difference between 2500 and 25000. I’ve seen it be the difference between winning 10k or nothing.

Fact is roster assembly, and this is likely pretty obvious to even the most rookie of players, is where the games won and lost.

I am embarrassed to admit it but there were times last year when I first started out that I was unaware of the fact that in hockey you can have guys ‘scratched’ literally a few minutes before the puck drops.

Why is that important? Well, the #1 reason is that if you aren’t paying attention you get a doughnut in that spot on your roster for the night. And yes, there were nights, more than I care to admit when I rostered a player that was a late scratch, more often than not it was goalies! Putting my lineups in early and kicking back before every goalie was ‘confirmed’ as the starter.

Fast forward to mid-evening when I am perusing my scores and I look at a team and see my goalie with 0 pts, and no saves, midway through the 2nd period…..

There were many nights, again more than I’d like to admit to, when I had a zero goalie cost me a significant amount of money. Nights when I would have broken even, or profited anywhere from 100 to 3-4K, where I ended up with nothing.

DF ex1

Let me show you something. This is from tonight, actually it’s a tournament going on right now.

First off notice another of the worlds best I_Slewfoot_U who’s all over the top 10 midway through the evening in the 150 entry GPP pool. But check out Awesemo in the 5th spot tied with a few guys. Actually, he has two teams tied there.

He and I picked the ‘same’ lineup, Carolina’s top line paired with the Knights top line. We both took Carlson as one of our D’s and he took Faulk and I took Nurse while he took DeSmith and I took Fleury (who gave up a 4th goal not long after this screenshot).

3pts separate us right here. His two 5th place teams are at the moment worth 1600 bucks while my team is winning 150.

Every single spot on the roster is of crucial importance. To create a top tiered 1st and 2nd line combo often times you’re left ‘scraping’ the bottom of the barrel for 2 D worth 25-2700 each. It’s IMPERATIVE you get guys that do NOT take a donut!

You cannot afford zeroes in any spot on your roster.

That data I told you about in an earlier post? Ya, I know exactly what % a 3rd line defender that does not play on the PP scores how many pts. I know his chances of scoring 3.5+ (a goal is 3.5 pts, 3 for the goal and .5 for the shot). I know his chances of scoring 1 or less. I know his chances of scoring 5 or more, 7 or more, 10 or more and so on. I know those % for every position on the ice, every line, every spot.

So when I’m left with those last picks and trying to find that 2600$ defenseman to fill out the roster spot I don’t grab the guy who averages the most pts, I grab the guy who is “potentially” positioned to score more than the rest of the 2600$ defenders that night. It’s a combination of Fantasy Cruncher and the data I have compiled.

Until next time!

Pass the Puck 12/14 edition

December 14, 2018

I was never a trash talker. I’d give and take in the clubhouse with teammates, and when I had the ball in my hand I had confidence, but I wasn’t a trash talker.

I did, however, lambaste trash talkers. Loved calling them out.

I say this because I deserve trash talking.

I was 55-22 before I started this blog, I gave 3 bets the 1st night, and went 0-3. I could list a litany of reasons why I lost but in betting, reasons are like buttholes, everyone has one and they all stink.

Tonight I went with Colorado -1.5 over St Louis and Pittsburgh -1.5 over Boston (Hate betting against the B’s!!!)

The Avalanche are as good as it gets and the Mackinnon line might be every bit as good as the Bergeron line when he’s healthy, if not better. They are on a roll and against a team that I have no clue about in the Blues who come into tonight a game below .500 at home and Jake Allen minding the net with his .899 save % and their league worst GA at home to boot.

Colorado is #2 in GF and the PP on the road.

I feel like the Pens are just starting to be the Pens. Crosby feels back and even with Hornqvist out they look better and better each night. Feels like DeSmith might be coming back to earth a bit but if they can get Murray right and get 2 goalies going things will get nasty.

I feel like the B’s are doing a yeoman’s job sans Bergy and Marchands 2 goals the other night might be a sign of things to come. 6-4 in their last 10 and given they have 38 pts with the massive number of injuries they’ve had to date should be a warning to the rest of the east to get while the getting is good on the B’s.

Normally Anthony Stolarz in net and the Flyers in town would mean the Oilers are a lock. But the back end of a back to back with West coast travel is a bitch on teams in baseball, can’t imagine what it’s like for guys skating. Philly could sneak one out and it could be a decent money line wager at +105.

The only other game I’d peek at to give 1.5 on would be Jets/Hawks in Chicago. Still getting a feel for hockey back to back games but this is an epic mistmatch.

For what it’s worth I went with the top line as one of my huge stacks tonight in DFS, the Hawks give up more shots than any team but one at home this year and the Jets are top 5 in the league in taking those shots. Expect 6-14 3.20 .930 Corey Crawford to need an IV between periods tonight.

Daily Hockey fundamentals

December 13, 2018

I’m setting this out there as a basis for all the things that will come after. I’ve spent quite literally over a thousand hours researching the past 2 hockey seasons.

Every single game, every single player, everything. I’ve put together hundreds of pages of data, compiled thousands and thousands of data points. Missed, hit, wasted my time, found some nuggets and everything in between.

Let me tell you how it happened, and where it started.

I will often reference my playing career because many of the lessons I learned carried over and do so in almost every aspect of my life.

First, any manager I ever played for would tell you I was eminently coachable. I followed rules, I did my job and I had zero problems with being a part of a team. I say this because in doing so I was open to anything. I listened, I sought out advice, I looked for and talked to the best of the best. In plain speak? I didn’t try to ‘reinvent the wheel’.

I did the exact same thing here.

How? My first task last year started sometime in mid-December. I was tired of losing. I had won a small pot here and there, I had lost far more. The frustration wasn’t just in the loss but rather in the fact that not only was I losing consistently, but day in and day out the same 4-6 names were winning. Every…..single…..day.

One thing I know about winning, consistent winning, is that it is never an accident or a coincidence. So I did exactly the same thing I did when I played. I went back to opening day of the hockey season and researched every single tournament I played in.

By research I mean I went through each tournament and wrote down every single team these guys that were winning had submitted. Each team they entered that qualified for prize money I could see their rosters.

By mid-December, there were more than enough games, tournaments, and data to see exactly how and what they were doing.

I am going to give a plug for a product I use, and most if not all good to great daily players use called Fantasy Cruncher  . Get it, familiarize yourself with it and use it. It’s an absolute necessity no matter what DFS sport or site you play.

So back to the data. I had combed through thousands of individual lineups and games and it had become sparklingly clear exactly how the premier players created their daily lineups. Not the players they picked, but how they picked the players they picked.

Let me give you a small sample of data I am talking about.

As of about a week ago in the 2018-19 season there had been a total of 15239 man games played. Meaning 1 player playing 1 game is 1 man game. So 15239 players had played a game.

If you selected a center, forward or defenseman that was NOT on his team’s power play unit you had a 58.41% chance that player would score 1 POINT OR LESS!

To that date, there had been a total of 144 games in which a player had scored 10 or more points on Draft Kings in a single game. 93.06% of the 144 10+ point games were had by players ON their team’s power play units and of that 72.92 % were on their teams top PP unit.

You see where I’m going right? The data is infinite and it’s easy as hell to get paralyzed by it. What is relevant? What isn’t? That’s part of the learning curve.

One more? Centers and Forwards that were on their team’s top line AND their teams top PP unit were the ONLY positions that registered 3.5 pts per game or more 50+% of the time (C = 55.18% and F = 50.87%).

That’s the kind of data I have compiled, and keep compiling. That’s the data I will be giving folks access to on a daily basis as I move forward fleshing this site out as both a DFS and betting site.

I will start getting into more detail as we move along into how I now compile my lineups and I have to say quite honestly I don’t know how I am going to do tonight but tonight is the first night in two years I finally feel like I am doing it the way the best of the best do it. (as I write this Vasilevsky is 43 of 44 vs Toronto tonight, guess the foots all better!). I’m sitting in 5th and 6th in the GPP big pool and 12th in the 400$ team game with just 1 entry. I’ll post my results each night and anyone that plays will see them anyway.

BTW, 2 of my bets from last night are looking like poop salad. Carolina, coming into tonight, was #1 on the road in shots for and shots against on the road, and tonight they’re being outshot 35-21 and down 4-2 in the 3rd. Not exactly what I was hoping for going public with my first night’s bets!

So anyway I wanted to start giving anyone interested a little insight into DFS and how it works. Clearly, there is no one way, but there is a right way. There is a way that it is done and players like Awesemo, l800Eddie, Testosterown, DollarBillW, boggslite and a few others do it consistently and do it right. They win night in and night out and they do so because they’re disciplined and they work within a very specific system.

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